Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
